13 year-old's calcs
By Joey - Posted on April 16th, 2008
Tagged: Apophis
Interesting to take into account the possibility of collision with an artificial satellite.
Moving the odds of collision from 1:45000 to 1:450 is troubling at best.
German schoolboy, 13, corects NASA's asteroid figures
Frankly, I never guessed that any amount of space junk could influence life in the world. I suppose we could blast the target satellite and move the odds back up to 1:45000.
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That's good material for your college application: "at age 13 corrected NASA's calculations about the Apophis asteroid"
1 in 450 is getting too close for comfort
2008-Jul-10:
An equivalent way of describing the problem of computing an impact probability for Apophis is that the true 2029 "keyhole" leading to a 2036 impact -- as distinct from the theoretical keyhole derived from the Standard Dynamical Model -- is not known in the absence of knowledge of the complete dynamics. The problem is acute enough for Apophis that, IF impact hasn't been previously excluded, AND there hasn't been a through physical characterization, it can't be known for certain it will impact until during or after the 2029 encounter, even if a spacecraft is accompanying Apophis and providing position measurements good to 2 meters. That is, the keyhole could be determined only retrospectively, after passage through it.
From the NASA web site.