Demographic Winter
This is a potentially interesting documentary on the global decline in fertility rates, it consequences, and the potential for an irreversible tipping point.
I am interested in the numbers and modeling this in the context of a tipping point. I think this is interesting also in the context of China's emerging male population and similarly India. Eschatologically, both of these male populations are disturbing reminders of Saruman's Uruk Hai. Where do the king's of the East get their armies? (Rev. 16:12)
Demographic Winter (www.demographicwinter.com)
"Worldwide, birth rate have been halved in the past 50 years. There are now 59 nations, with 44% of the world's population with below replacement fertility.
"Sometime in this century, the world's population will begin to decline. At a certain point the decline will become "rapid. We may even reach population free-fall in our lifetimes.
"For some countries population decline is already a reality. Russia is losing three-quarters-of-a-million people a year. Its population (currently 145 million) is expected to fall by one-third by 2050."
"If present low birth rates persist, the European Union estimates there will be a continent-wide shortfall of 20 million workers by 2030.
A Dow friend recently cited this as a major benefit of relatively high levels of immigration to the US...as a counter-balance to the demographic decline experienced in Europe and elsewhere.
A good summary document is the UN population news letter. (www.unpopulation.org)
The immigration effect is not isolated to the US but also dominates in Europe.
The UN document "World Population to 2300" describes this demographic shift in Europe.